The US-Saudi Relationship
President Biden is currently facing criticism for not sanctioning Prince Mohammed bin Salman directly for his role in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. To what extent is this criticism warranted and how should the US-Saudi Arabia relationship change moving forward? In some ways, the alliance seems to be an anachronism. The US is no longer dependent on Middle Eastern oil, and the kingdom’s human rights record is abysmal by any standard. There are then both practical and moral reasons to de-emphasize the relationship.
However, sanctioning bin Salman would antagonize the Saudis and leave the US with few allies in the region. A complete rupture with Saudi Arabia would likely also make the US relationship with other Gulf states such as Bahrain and the UAE more antagonistic. Given the regional power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran, this change would not advance any US goals or interests. From a macro perspective, both President Obama and President Trump attempted to draw down US commitments in the Middle East and refocus resources and attention on China. As it was first known, the “pivot” to Asia drew scorn from conservatives and even hawkish liberals. But the underlying thought behind the policy was and remains sound.
The US has launched two major wars and other limited “interventions” in the Middle East just in the past two decades and has nothing to show for it. Syria and Libya have been utterly devastated by war. Iraq faces monumental challenges in governance: the idea that the US could establish a model democracy there was utterly naïve. While the Trump administration finalized a peace deal with the Taliban, they have ignored their commitment to decrease violence and have in fact increased their attacks on the Afghan government (not a party to the deal). Based on this very poor track record, limiting future engagement in the Middle East is the best path forward.
For Saudi Arabia, that principle means Biden’s actions so far have been appropriate. Imposing sanctions and visa restrictions, halting arms sales, and ending US support for the war in Yemen have all been significant moves and have signaled to Saudi Arabia that the status quo of the alliance is finished. This middle path, while unsatisfying to leftists and strong human rights advocates, preserves leverage for the long-term. The United States needs as many allies, or at least partners, as it can get to address myriad global challenges from arms proliferation to climate change. Realistically, sanctioning the Crown Prince directly will not change his or the kingdom’s behavior. In this case, President Biden’s actions have been strategic and recognize the limits of US power.
