The Coup in Myanmar
On February 1st, Myanmar’s military overthrew civilian leaders, detaining Aung San Suu Kyi and others, in a coup d’état. This coup is unfortunate, but not surprising considering the military’s control of the country for many decades and the limited reforms of 2011. Although Internet shutdowns and protests are occurring, the military will almost certainly cling to power in the short-term. The long-term outlook remains uncertain (even though elections in one year’s time were announced), because the coup itself was preceded by allegations of fraud in last November’s elections. There is little to prevent the military from simply declaring void whatever results it does not approve of.
What can or should the United States do about the coup in Myanmar? President Biden today announced sanctions against several of Myanmar’s military leaders. Aside from this, however, there is not a big role for the US to play here. Economically, Myanmar is growing quickly, but its main trade partner is China. While the US favors democratic reforms wherever they might occur, Myanmar is ultimately rather insignificant when it comes to US foreign policy. China’s growth as an economic and political power reinforces but does not cause or change this calculation. Using a “spheres of influence” lens, all of Southeast Asia is certainly under China’s influence, if only through economic power.
Much has been written about democratic backsliding and an “authoritarian resurgence” or “wave” in political science literature in recent years. This trend is indeed observable in many countries and regions, including the US, Poland, Turkey, the Philippines, Brazil, and now Myanmar. Many specific cases can be tied to the rise of populist and nationalist parties and politicians. While this trend is worrying, I believe the pre-existing and prevailing view of many regimes around the world was too optimistic and glided over important issues. In the 1990s, many scholars even listed Russia as a partial or developing democracy, which in hindsight was a clear overreach.
Even though democracy is a better alternative than authoritarian rule, how the democracy functions is just as important. Full extension of civil rights to minorities, access to elections, due process, and freedom of the press are only a few examples of aspects of democracy that are vital in ensuring a real and equal voice for citizens. Yet the United States itself still struggles with most of these aspects of democracy, showing just how hard it is for democracies to not only take root but sustain themselves. Ultimately, a true democracy is an ideal that will never be perfected. So while the coup in Myanmar is unfortunate for many Western observers, building the resilience of our democracy at home should be our focus.
