The Abraham Accords
Former President Donald Trump strained many US alliances during his time in office by questioning their value, both in terms of US military commitments and trade. However, Trump wholly embraced the US-Israel alliance which had become strained under the Obama administration. Trump pleased conservatives in both countries by moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights. Trump also received recognition for the Abraham Accords, in which the UAE and Bahrain each recognized Israel and agreed to fully normalize relations. Over the final months of the Trump administration, Sudan and Morocco also announced they would normalize relations with Israel. While these agreements are historic, what significance do they actually have for the region?
In announcing the Accords, President Trump claimed the agreements would serve the larger cause of “maintaining and strengthening peace in the Middle East”. Although any normalization of relations is good in and of itself, it is difficult to see how the agreements alone bring measurable progress towards that larger end. To a large extent, the Accords formalize geopolitical changes that have accelerated over the last decade or so. Put simply, many Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, have expanded ties with Israel (whether formally or informally) as part of their shared interest in countering Iran. Of the four countries that have normalized relations, two (Bahrain and the UAE) are Gulf monarchies with a strong interest in forming alliances against Iran, while the others (Sudan and Morocco) pursued their own longstanding goals over any notion of Arab solidarity with Palestinians.
In return for these agreements, Sudan was removed from the state sponsors of terrorism list which lifted sanctions, while Morocco received US recognition of its claim over Western Sahara. The UAE also supposedly made a sale of F-35 jets a condition of the agreement, but that deal has now been frozen by President Biden. In sum, while the benefits of normalization to Israel are clear, the US has given a substantial amount of leverage for little tangible gain. If anything, the agreements further reduce pressure on Israel to pursue a two-state solution, which was already at a historical low point. The Abraham Accords do nothing to help the Palestinians. Because that peace process is functionally non-existent, these agreements convey the appearance of momentum on the issue while almost completely sidestepping it. Unfortunately, the occupation of Palestine with ever-expanding Israeli settlements has become the status quo, making an equitable two-state solution a remote possibility for the near future.
While the Abraham Accords are still a worthwhile achievement, whether they contribute to “peace in the Middle East” is doubtful at best. Continuing conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Yemen attest to that fact, and the possibility of conflict with Iran has only increased in recent years. Whether President Biden can help address any of these problems remains to be seen as well.
